Our clients have been long the pound kiwi pair against our model outlier 1.77 level for a number of weeks now however a larger time frame technical pattern seems to be forming with quite symmetrical time and price characteristics – the mystical (and routinely mythical) head and shoulders pattern, or in this case its inverted equivalent. Generally speaking, I hold little faith in this pattern, unless of course it is playing out on …

Since Lehman Bros. collapse,

It became “easy” and”popular” with the general public to be a market bear.
It’s almost the troll d’jour of part time investors to claim they have found the next “bubble”.
It’s popular to assume that after reading Taleb’s books, one is now qualified to assess risk? Despite it taking a lifetime of hard work and complex mathematics for Nassim, likely much smarter than most people, to achieve the same result?

In the same way, smart …

I am certainly not the first to highlight the role that March/April has played in the $ES_F for the past few years however it is no less interesting.

The reliability of October being a key reversal area is a little less robust when looking further back into recent history and it seems to be more a decision point than anything else.

Going back the preceding 8 years however each April has printed at two bar reversal of …